A Multi-Winner Multi-PPA Procurement Strategy to Accelerate RUPTL 2025–2034 at PLN Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59261/bustechno.v7i5.833Keywords:
Analytic Hierarchy Process, Bundling Strategy, Renewable Energy Procurement, RUPTL, Stakeholder PerceptionAbstract
Background: Indonesia’s Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025–2034 sets ambitious renewable energy targets, yet project realization remains substantially below plan. Between 2021 and 2024, only 1,606.18 MW of the 5,096 MW target reached Commercial Operation Date, while only 8.34% of capacity entering procurement initiation during 2021–2025 progressed to Power Purchase Agreement signing.
Objective: This study aims to identify the principal factors associated with renewable energy procurement bottlenecks at PT PLN (Persero), examine stakeholder perceptions of the current procurement process, and prioritize an appropriate procurement strategy to support RUPTL implementation.
Methods: This study employed a mixed-methods approach that included performance gap analysis, the Kepner–Tregoe method, the fishbone diagram, SWOT–PESTEL analysis, a purposive survey of 24 respondents, and AHP. The AHP assessment involved 12 internal experts from PLN, with 10 experts retained in the final analysis after two respondents were excluded for failing to meet the consistency threshold (CR ≤ 0.10). The strategic priorities were then tested through a sensitivity analysis.
Results: The analysis identified fragmented project-by-project procurement and the relatively small scale of individual projects as primary controllable factors associated with low procurement conversion. Stakeholder findings also highlighted regulatory uncertainty, PPA risk allocation, and procurement-process complexity. AHP prioritized the Bundling: Multi-Winner, Multi-PPA alternative with a global priority weight of 0.399, and sensitivity analysis showed that this priority remained stable across most criterion-weight variations.
Conclusion: The proposed strategy provides an integrated procurement framework for reducing process fragmentation while preserving flexibility across project characteristics. The framework may support PLN and other single-buyer utilities in structuring more coordinated renewable energy procurement.
References
Anatolitis, V., Azanbayev, A., & Fleck, A.-K. (2022). How to design efficient renewable energy auctions? Empirical insights from Europe. Energy Policy, 166, 112982. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112982
Arowolo, W. (2019). Designing reverse auctions for solar power as a potential energy access solution for the Nigeria power sector. The Electricity Journal, 32(8), 106635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2019.106635
Bichler, M., Fichtl, M., Heidekrüger, D., Kohring, N., & Sutterer, P. (2020). Market design for renewable energy auctions. Energy Economics, 92, 104904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104904
Bose, A. S., & Sarkar, S. (2019). India’s e-reverse auctions (2017–2018) for allocating renewable energy capacity: An evaluation. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 112, 762–774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.025
Camp, K. M., Young, M., & Bushardt, S. C. (2022). A millennial manager skills model for the new remote work environment. In Management Research Review (Vol. 45, Number 5). https://doi.org/10.1108/MRR-01-2021-0076
Darke, W., & Karatayev, M. (2025). From fossil fuels to renewables: Analysing efficacy and impact of auctions to attract investment in resource-rich Kazakhstan. Sustainable Futures, 9, 101308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101308
del Río, P., & Kiefer, C. P. (2021). Analysing patterns and trends in auctions for renewable electricity. Energy for Sustainable Development, 62, 195–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2021.03.002
del Río, P., & Kiefer, C. P. (2023). Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward. Energy Policy, 173, 113305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113305
Dobrotkóvá, Z., Surana, K., & Audinet, P. (2018). The price of solar energy: Comparing competitive auctions for utility-scale solar PV in developing countries. Energy Policy, 118, 133–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.036
Ehrhart, K.-M., Ott, M., Seifert, S., & Wang, R. (2024). Combinatorial auctions for renewable energy—potentials and challenges. Energy Policy, 191, 113988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113988
Haelg, L. (2020). Promoting technological diversity: How renewable energy auction designs influence policy outcomes. Energy Research & Social Science, 69, 101636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101636
Kepner, C. H., & Tregoe, B. B. (1981). The new rational manager. Princeton Research Press. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22The%20new%20rational%20manager%22
Kruger, W., & Alao, O. (2024). Driving growth: Effective renewable energy tendering in Africa. GIZ; GET.transform; Power Futures Lab; SRMI.
Kruger, W., & Eberhard, A. (2023). The impact of competition, trust and capital on renewable energy auction outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: Analysing auctions in South Africa, Zambia and Namibia. Energy Policy, 178, 113572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113572
Mathieu, E., & Valenzuela, J. M. (2025). The governance of renewable energy auctions: A multidimensional comparative policy analysis. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 27(1), 39–61. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2024.2405589
Matthäus, D. (2020). Designing effective auctions for renewable energy support. Energy Policy, 142, 111462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111462
Maulidia, M., Dargusch, P., Ashworth, P., & Ardiansyah, F. (2018). Rethinking renewable energy targets and electricity sector reform in Indonesia: A private sector perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 101, 231–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.11.005
Nasional, D. E. (2022). Laporan analisa neraca energi nasional. Dewan Energi Nasional.
Odum, M. I., Jason, I. D., & Jambol, D. D. (2022). A multi-criteria decision-making model for subsea tender evaluation and contract risk management in high-value EPC projects. Gyanshauryam, International Scientific Refereed Research Journal, 5(4).
Özcan, M. (2021). Renewable energy auctions in Turkey: Auction design based on stakeholder opinions. Renewable Energy, 169, 473–484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.01.009
(Persero), P. T. P. L. N. (2025). Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) PT PLN (Persero) 2025–2034. PT PLN (Persero).
Saaty, T. L. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijssci.2008.017590
Shrimali, G., Konda, C., & Farooquee, A. A. (2016). Designing renewable energy auctions for India: Managing risks to maximize deployment and cost-effectiveness. Renewable Energy, 97, 656–670. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.05.079
Şirin, S. M., & Sevindik, I. (2021). An analysis of Turkey’s solar PV auction scheme: What can Turkey learn from Brazil and South Africa? Energy Policy, 148, 111933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111933
Suhud, M., & Pranadi, A. D. (2022). New paradigm thematic paper: Renewable energy procurement in Indonesia. MENTARI Programme.
Thapar, S., Sharma, S., & Verma, A. (2018). Analyzing solar auctions in India: Identifying key determinants. Energy for Sustainable Development, 45, 66–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2018.05.003
Tolmasquim, M. T., de Barros Correia, T., Addas Porto, N., & Kruger, W. (2021). Electricity market design and renewable energy auctions: The case of Brazil. Energy Policy, 158, 112558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112558
Wahyuni, E., & Ardiansyah, H. (2022). Indonesia’s national strategy and commitment towards transition to renewable energy. Penerbit BRIN eBooks. https://doi.org/10.55981/brin.562.c2
Winkler, J., Magosch, M., & Ragwitz, M. (2017). Effectiveness and efficiency of auctions for supporting renewable electricity – What can we learn from recent experiences? Renewable Energy, 119, 473–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.09.071
Yalılı, M., Tiryaki, R., & Gözen, M. (2020). Evolution of auction schemes for renewable energy in Turkey: An assessment on the results of different designs. Energy Policy, 145, 111772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111772
Yudha, S. W., & Tjahjono, B. (2019). Stakeholder mapping and analysis of the renewable energy industry in Indonesia. Energies, 12(4), 602. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12040602
Yustika, M. (2024). Unlocking Indonesia’s renewable energy investment potential. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Sidik Mustafa, Gatot Yudoko
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC-BY-SA). that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
